This is the classic 'illustration': a murder takes place. The forensics team identify hair from the crime scene. A DNA test is carried out, indicating that someone with a previous conviction who lives in the same town is a match.
In employment investigations, a similar fallacy occurs when an investigator assumes that because an event could have happened a certain way, it must have happened that way, ignoring other probabilities.
Alex acts in disputes like this one for claimants and respondents, instructed by solicitors or by direct access. How to instruct him or email the clerks.